Monday 26 April 2010

Harper a lock?

With the NFL draft having just finished with all the surprises and drama a draft should provide, toying with the lives of young men is always more fun than it should be. Unfortunately the Major League Baseball draft doesn’t pack the same punch as its football brethren, but that doesn’t mean that people like me can’t be lone voices in the dark. This is not a mock draft, just a small disclaimer, it is more like a draft profile, hopefully I will know enough by June to provide a mock draft of sorts. With their annual first pick is the Washington Nationals having used it, and $15 million, on right hander Stephen Strasburg last year and so far it looks like a great pick. He is currently 2-0 with an 0.73 ERA at AA level, where he won’t be pitching for very long. So with that and other young pieces such as Ryan Zimmerman this year’s pick is huge for the Nats, given that they seem to be building something in DC. The consensus number one pick is Junior College hitting phenom Bryce Harper. His numbers are completely eye boggling and he has already been labelled the “LeBron James of baseball” by Sports Illustrated, in case you haven’t noticed LeBron is pretty good. The trouble with the catcher is that he is only 17, digest that for a second and think what you were doing as a 17-year-old. Looking at colleges, chasing girls/boys, rebelling against society, the things normal kids aged 17 do. Most don’t leave High School as a Junior to attend JuCo with the intention of getting a professional job at 17. Almost nobody does it to get a job in which you will likely become a multi-millionaire overnight, his numbers and profile would likely mean he would get a contract similar to Strasburg’s. That would give him to the Nats for four years meaning he would be 21 when his first contract expired, which would be about the same time he got his first call from the Yankees offering the big bucks. From what I’ve seen of Harper his confidence touches arrogance more often than not, a trait that Nationals really don’t need, and his age makes it impossible for him to act as a mature adult, especially when he’s been paid.

Despite the huge upside to Harper I’m of the belief that he should not go number one in June, not because of any talent flaws and only because of a couple of character flaws, but most of all because of the Nationals needs. Having picked up Strasburg last year they have a staff ace for the next fifteen years but don’t have much behind that. The NL East, more than any other division is a pitching division, just look at the teams that have been successful the last two decades. Obviously the Atlanta Braves are the prime example after the Glavine-Smoltz-Maddux era, but now we are seeing it with the Phillies and how important the Cliff Lee trade was last year in wrapping up the division and going to the World Series. The 2010 draft class doesn’t have any exceptional arms like last year’s number one pick, but it does possess two high quality college pitchers who could easily be quality second starters for the Nationals. Anthony Ranaudo of LSU and Drew Pomeranz at Ole Miss are separating themselves at the top of this year’s pitchers class, Ranaudo has only just returned from a shoulder injury and until Saturdays game with Ole Miss looked the pitcher everyone thought I don’t think are proven enough to be the number one pick. While I don’t think the Nats will pass on Harper it seems to make more sense to me for the Nationals to build a ten year rotation before building their offense. Regardless of who they take it will be a good draft for all teams in the top five this year as all five, Washington, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Kansas City and Cleveland, will all be able to fill needs that will improve their teams.

Thursday 8 April 2010

Time Out

I will be taking a few weeks off from blogging until my thesis is wrapped up I can provide interesting opinions not formulated half way between sanity and sleep. Hopefully I will be able to write a wonderfully researched, interesting blog around April 30th. Until then Go Braves, Go Dawgs, Go Jackets and, just to shake it up, Go Hawks!