Saturday, 19 December 2009

Rebirth on the Bayou

This decade ends in 12 days. There’s little doubt who the team of this decade is, the Patriots own that title. And yet, even before the end of this one, I think we already have an idea who the team of the next decade will be. What made the Patriots, and the Steelers and Colts for that matter, the elite teams of this decade? Well for one they all have a stud quarterback, and I mean a complete stud. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger are three of the best QB’s of this generation, and two of them are two of the best ever. And that is exactly what the Saints have.

Drew Brees is perhaps the best passing quarterback in the league since Dan Marino. He barely missed the single season passing record last year and leads fourth quarter comebacks like few people ever have. Numbers wise he doesn’t, in any way, seem anything less than elite. Lets start with time span. Brees will turn 31 on January 15th, if your judging by Brett Favre years (like dog years in reverse), then Brees will still be this good in 2019. He also has the experience factor. He has 9 years experience, it’s not like teams haven’t seen him before. Of those 9 years he has played 16 games in 6 of them. And he doesn’t have down years, he consistently hovers around 65 percent completion. His yards have actually been increasing year on year and his passer rating has only been below 90.0 four times, and two of those years he had 89.2 and 89.4. He is also the defining factor in the offence. Like Peyton Manning he is the leader of the team, you are confident in him in any situation and he is clearly having fun in New Orleans.

There are other reasons that the Saints offence has been so successful. The first is the run game. It’s a new aspect that has never really existed in New Orleans before. The desperate attempts to make Reggie Bush the player that most people thought and hoped he would be has made sure of that. This year both Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas have well over double the carries Bush has. Bush has instead become a really successful all-purpose back. He has 62 rushing attempts for 310 yards and 39 catches for 281 yards. So in total Bush has contributed 591 yards to the Saints offence. That is the kind of yardage the team would have been hoping for from him as a running back. The rushing game on it’s own is the fifth best in the country, averaging 138.9 yards per game. This is how Brees has been freed to play as well as he is. When you have backs who are averaging 4 or 5 yards per attempt the opposition defence has other things to worry about.
The receivers are all having great years as well as the backs. As the saying goes; Brees’ favorite receiver is the open one. Seven players have over twenty receptions this year. Twelve in total have caught a ball for the Saints. You have to remember that for a team to have a successful passing game they need good receivers. The 287.2 yards averaged by the aerial offence is as much a tribute to the receiving core as much as it is Drew Brees. Playing against this Shaun Payton offensive plan gives defensive coordinators all kinds of nightmares, and everyone plays a part.

However New Orleans having offence is nothing new. New Orleans having defence is something nobody really expected. This is also where the Saints show the kind of mentality that makes great teams great. It’s a Tony Dungy idea which, by default, makes it a good one, the “next man up” idea has been displayed by the New Orleans secondary all year long. Chris McAlister’s two weeks in Louisiana demonstrates exactly how this works. McAlister does his job for a couple of games, the Saints think that they’ve had the best out of him, cut him, sign Mike McCauley. It’s getting to the perfect point where, regardless of who is on the Saints depth chart, they will do their job, or a good enough job. The addition of Darren Sharper is perhaps the best signing made by any team. He leads the Saints in interceptions (8), intercepted return yards (355) and passes defended. He also has the fourth most tackles (54). Whilst the other secondary pieces keep changing he has remained the consistent that has improved this defence so much. They average 21.1 points per game, 18th in the NFL, while the offence averages 35.8 points per game. Whilst the D isn’t the dominant force that the Steelers were last year it sets the table for the offence to do what is does. At this point that’s all they need to do.

It also cannot be overlooked how important this team is becoming to the city. For New Orleans, still feeling some after effects of Katrina, the Saints represent all that is good about the place. The gold uniforms shine like a beacon of light and hope from the Superdome. After Katrina the grand, old structure was filled with desolate and desperate people who’s lives had just been torn apart. Now if you watch New Orleans against Dallas tonight, or any Saints home game for that matter, it is a different person in the arena. It is a different team. It is a different city.

Saturday, 12 December 2009

The more things change the more they stay the same

Everything was different. Tim Tebow was outplayed by an opposition quarterback. Urban Meyer was completely out coached and Florida was dominated. From the very first play it was obvious that this was a very different game to any we have seen for at least three years. Nick Saban is renowned for deferring when winning the coin toss, not Saturday. He grabbed that ball to make a statement. Alabama is very possibly the last college team in the country that doesn’t run a spread offence, first play Saturday they just did. That play was an indicator of how the rest of the game would go. Everything Alabama did was a statement, from the kick off, to the spread, to scoring first drive. The game plan was obvious, punch Florida in the nose and leave them bloody. Every time the CBS camera’s zoomed on Meyer or Tebow there was a concern I have never seen before. Did they panic? Get confused? or scared? Whatever, they had no answer. How did ’Bama blow away the reigning national champions? It’s a question that every member of ’Gator Nation has been asking since about 7pm in the Georgia Dome. Florida lost all the key match ups, and these a just some of them;

QB; Greg McElroy vs. Tim Tebow

If this was your first ever college football game and you were told the best player in the country was on the field, you would have thought it was Alabama’s number 12. On Saturday night it was. From the first pass to the when he ran off the field McElroy was in complete control of the football, almost every pass was where it needed to be. In fact McElroy attempted less passes than Tebow completed, but ended with only 8 yards less. Whether it was the coach who panicked or the player, Florida completely lost control, they lost perspective and forgot the game plan. Tebow had 10 rushing attempts to 35 passing attempts. Last week against Florida State he had 21 passing attempts and 15 rushing. Tebow looked like a wide eyed freshman not a senior Heisman winner. While McElroy made the big plays, either with his arms or legs, they were completely taken away from Tebow. As Pat Forde wrote for ESPN McElroy "out-Tebowed" Tebow, and this match-up boils down simply to that.

CB; Javier Arenas vs. Joe Haden

Arenas was supposed to be more dangerous on special teams than defence. Florida’s approach to Arenas on special teams was perfect he was shut down. As a defender he shut Florida down. This was not the predicted story line in regards to the two corner backs. It was predicted the Joe Haden could have a potentially huge game while covering Julio Jones. It was telling that it was against Haden Jones managed to get open on the very first play of the game. All game either Maquis Maze or Julio Jones were managing to get open, wide open. No receiver could consistently do this. You only have to compare two end zone passes, Arenas put himself in perfect position to steal Tebow’s last gasp heave. With 10 minutes left in the Third Quarter Colin Peek, the Alabama Tight End, escaped Haden’s coverage to catch McElroy’s perfect pass into the end zone. Arenas didn’t do what he was supposed to do, he did what he needed to do, Haden couldn’t.

WR; Julio Jones vs. Riley Cooper

This was supposed to be the big receiver match-up, like many predictions it didn’t happen that way. In fact this was the one key contest Florida won. That straight head-to-head shows Jones has 2 catches for 28 yards and Cooper had 3 for 77. Saying that negates the impact that Marquis Maze and Mark Ingram made as receivers for Alabama. Maze had 5 of ‘Bama’s 12 receptions and made 96 yards and Ingram went 2 for 76. Despite both Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez’s big games the Tide receivers all made big plays when it mattered and the Gators didn’t.

RB; Mark Ingram vs. Florida

Was this ever a real match-up? It turned out not. It’s impossible to measure Ingram against any other Florida rusher, Tebow is the Gators running back regardless of what he’s listed as. This, plus the fact Ingram alone ran the ball twice as much as the whole Gator team, shows the imbalance in this argument. Ingram had his Heisman game all over the Florida defence, whether catching or running it was all about Mark Ingram making big plays. He beat Tebow rushing, he beat Demps rushing and he beat the Florida defence in general.

Was there a defining match-up that won the game for Alabama? You could say it was Saban vs. Meyer and have a great case. But in the grand scheme of things it seems that on a day when the past met the present, a day when everything changed but stayed the same, the Crimson Tide as an entity was better than Florida, nothing more nothing less. It was the first time in a long time that Alabama emerged the bear shaped shadow, just for a day. If they win on January 7th there may be a new shadow looking over Tuscaloosa.

Sunday, 6 December 2009

Is it Really the Time?

Even today wasn’t too ugly, not when you consider the situation this time last year. Vince Young is still well on track to revive his career. Just when it looked like the NFL had seen the end of VY he proves everyone wrong. But where did this revival come from? It has come from the one entity there isn’t enough of these days. It’s an old fashioned value that is now very unpopular. It came from Old Mother Time. Long ago in a distant time, kids were given time to become men. They developed, took their lumps and watched older guys. Most importantly these young men learned their craft. It’s easy to forget exactly how different the NFL is compared to college. College quarterbacks play 12 games a year facing maybe 5 or 6 elite linemen or linebackers maximum, especially in these times of cupcake games. They then switch to the pro’s, walk out in their first game and face 8 elite linemen and linebackers. They have maybe a quarter of the time they have at college level, and they have less open receivers. Vince Young’s decline in his second and third years show the difference in the games, as soon as teams have film you have to adjust, Vince never did. So he sat, for a long year he sat. And he watched, he watched the gnarled veteran Kerry Collins lead the Titans to 13-3 regular season. He then lead the Titans to an 0-6 start this year, an opportunity introduced itself. November became the month of Young, a different Young, a mature Young. We know why Young was rushed into the NFL, we know why all these young QB’s are rushed to start. The amount of money that is invested in these young men that teams become tied to them, they need returns on their investments. But for those investments we get seasons like this 2009 vintage. Three first year quarterbacks and two high-profile sophomores, none of them playing well. What do they all have in common? They don’t fully understand the National Football League craft. They are all throwing interceptions, making bad decisions and looking inexperienced, at this level talent doesn’t get you too far on it’s own. The two aforementioned sophomore QB’s, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco, are experiencing exactly what happened to Vince Young first hand. Both blew peoples doors off last year, they looked poised, relaxed and mature beyond their years. This year everybody has tape on these guys and they are struggling. Maybe Mike Smith and John Harbaugh should maybe be brave and take the plunge, sit both these two future stars and let them learn what they need to from veteran guys. You only have to watch Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman for a short time to realise how far they have to come. All three make plays, they also make plenty of mistakes, more than they should be making. The Lions had the best chance to get the best out of their number one pick. there is no doubting the amount of talent that Matt Stafford has, he just has no experience and very little knowledge. Detroit had Daunte Culpepper, a perfect stop gap to let Stafford just study NFL defences, let him understand what he has to beat.

So what about this years draft class. Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, Jimmy Clausen and Tim Tebow. It’s safe to rule Tebow out of this discussion, he will never play quarterback at the pro level. That leaves McCoy, Bradford and Clausen. None of these three young men are anywhere near NFL ready. They all have big arms, are football clever and two of them seem somewhat sensible. They are the best of the 2010 draft and none of them have anything close to a pro skill set…yet. It’s just one or two years at a maximum, two years in which you can build a young team, let them grow together and learn the league. Building however takes time and money. NFL owners only have one of those two qualities.

Tuesday, 1 December 2009

The Other Legacy

There is a quarterback in Texas who implodes at crucial points of his season. Now there is also one that does the exact opposite. After the Texas-Oklahoma game on October 17th Colt McCoy looked over hyped, over stressed and over awed. It was by far his worst game in the last 2, maybe 3, years. Just in case you’ve forgotten, lets recap; McCoy completed 21 passes from 38 attempts, he had 1 touchdown and 1 pick and, worst of all, Colt McCoy the potential Heisman winner passed for 127 yards. And only 33 yards rushing, at an average of 2.4. This was a painful degeneration of a great player, McCoy looked a shadow of the player who took his team to within 10 seconds of a perfect season. Whilst the numbers were awful it was the play that was the worst aspect. He was making bad throws, failing to make any plays outside the pocket and making the Sooners defensive job easy. Just as the well looked empty, McCoy and the entire Texas team looked wildly overestimated at National Championship contenders.

Then came Missouri and the Colt McCoy everyone knows, and loves to watch, walked out of the locker room with the rest of his team. It wasn’t vintage, more classical, but the touch was back, the fire in the eye returned and so did the performance level. There was no great statement, nothing to thrust him back into the forefront of Heisman voting, just a nice game. These nice games continued, three in total between Oklahoma and now; Missouri, Oklahoma State and Baylor. If there were other nice games there would be nothing special or significant about the season that Colt McCoy has had. These three games were however highlighted by three outstanding efforts. The one’s where McCoy puts the Burnt Orange on his back and carries them, like he did all last year. Central Florida became the first team this year to play against the real McCoy. 470 yards later and the doubts had begun to seep away, slowly though, tempered by only throwing 2 touchdowns and still giving up a pick. Then came the last two games of the year, Kansas and Texas A&M. This was when the intangibles as well as the measurable were both on display. The toughness that is bred in most young men in Tuscola, Texas shone through, the leadership qualities of the fourth year senior, the accuracy and the mobility all came together again to form a new Colt McCoy. 700 yards passing and 204 yards rushing over the last two games combined showed the statistical prowess but there was more. It was the leadership against Kansas, on paper not a tough game, but in practicality a big banana skin. This was when the passing game came back to him, the incredible accuracy, the touchdown passes and finally zero interceptions. Did anyone ever honestly believe that last years version of the Texas quarterback could be bettered? Well over the last two weeks we have found out the answer to that question. Emphatically yes. This was highlighted in a glorious pyrotechnic display in the tightest spot of his, and Texas’, year. Whilst his usual accuracy deserted him he found a way. A way to contribute 479 yards to the Texas offence and again showed the leadership that was required at the crucial time.

The nation has seen the Tebow moments; the jump passes, the rushing touchdowns, the charging down the touchline. Thanksgiving night in College Station, Texas was the first genuine McCoy moment. It is different to that of Tebow’s, he is a different person, a different player, a different entity to that of the Gator. He is just as good a person, like Tebow he provides missionary work to South America, he is Tebow’s equal in leadership and his superior in quality of play. He is just quieter and from a different programme, a different state. He has maybe taken on more in leading the Texas Longhorns than Tebow has in leading the Gators. Consider coming into that team after Vince Young, the National Championship and handling, handling it well enough to become the winningest QB in college football history. Regardless of these outstanding features to McCoy and his legacy he will always be measured against Tebow. Can he surpass the Florida QB and all he has achieved? Can he establish himself as the best player of his class? There are two accolades that McCoy needs to do this, one will be won in New York and the other in Pasadena. If he achieves this, the legacy is complete. If not 2009 is still turning into a year of McCoy.

Monday, 30 November 2009

The young and the hopeful

I was wrong. I may have slightly over hyped Joe Cox. Ok more than slightly. There was probably never any realistic chance that Georgia would ever get near an SEC championship with Cox under center. Unfortunately it took Mark Richt and Mike Bobo 12 weeks to figure out what might. Washaun Ealey and Caleb King broke out big time Saturday night in Atlanta. Just to clarify Georgia Tech is supposed to be the best rushing offence in the country, not Saturday. All year the Dawgs had disappeared in any kind of big games, national TV camera’s apparently give UGA players rashes these days. Having been picked apart by both Tennessee and Florida, then proceeding to crap all over the memory of Uga VII last week against Kentucky, would anyone have believed anything other than embarrassment would happen at Bobby Dodd. Well try these; surprise, elation, vindication, redemption. Joe Cox never became the player I was predicting but Ealey and King suddenly did. Of Georgia’s 44 carries Ealey and King combined for 38 of them. Those 38 attempts equalled 349 yards, that’s an average of 9.2 yards per carry. The amazing early success of the big play passing game, that was almost exclusively an A.J Green highlight reel, perhaps delayed the progress of this running game. The confusion over who was the guy to replace Knowshon Moreno also contributed., you only have to watch Alabama and the success of Trent Richardson working alongside Mark Ingram to see how it can work in the SEC. Despite coming 8 weeks to late to save the season the Bulldogs as a team, and I mean a complete team of offence, defence and special teams, rebounded from the troubles this year to pull out a win at the number 7 ranked team in the country. A lot of credit has to go also to the much maligned Willy Martinez and his defence. To hold the funky triple option to just 205 yards rushing and force the Yellow Jackets into passing 13 times shows how well the D played. Paul Johnson was sufficiently freaked that he threw out his playbook. If you’ve ever Josh Nesbitt on a football field you will know he is not a passing quarterback. So why make him throw? Was Tech so intimidated by the Bulldog that they felt incapable of using an offence that has been so successful for them both this and last year. It was a complete role reversal of the game in Athens last year, remember those desperation heaves by Matthew Stafford? Swap Stafford for Nesbitt this year. Remember Jonathan Dwyer tearing apart the Georgia run defence? Swap Dwyer for either King or Ealey.

There’s going to be plenty of chance to look ahead to both bowls and next year but I want to get an early jump. Cox had, unfortunately, proven inadequate. I said to a friend a couple of weeks ago “Cox is Big 12 or Pac 10 good, not SEC good” now I’m not even sure he’s that good. From now on, with the one exception in January, Joe Cox will no longer be the University of Georgia starting quarterback. It will either prove to be Aaron Murray or Zach Mettenberger. Most seem to think it will be Murray but, from what I’ve seen, do not count out Mettenberger. Next year both will have had a year as part of the team, they will have matured and they will have an incredible Sophmore and Redshirt Junior running back. There is suddenly potential, excitement and, dare I say it, expectation in Athens again. Whether it’s right or wrong I’m suddenly more excited about this Springs G-Day game than whichever bowl the Dawgs are in. It took 1 hour and over 300 yards hard labor but all of a sudden Georgia football has a pulse again.

Tuesday, 24 November 2009

The Future's Bright...But not Orange

Tim Tebow, perhaps the greatest college quarterback ever, will not be playing college football in two months. For three years Tebow has been the face of the SEC. The most talked about, most competitive, most challenging division in all of college football has been encapsulated in this one young man. It has not just been his record setting on the field play, it has also been the immeasurable intangibles that Tebow possesses that has set him apart. He is everything and more a team wants out of it’s leader, throughout his collegiate career everything involving the University of Florida had been about Tebow. A quick review of the aforementioned numbers shows what an incredible player Tim has been; 8,335 career passing yards, 81 passing touchdowns, 2,743 career rushing yards and 54 rushing touchdowns. Despite those outlandish numbers Tebow is so much more than an outstanding football player. He is an outstanding person, both in and out of school. His missionary trips in the summer and spring breaks just go to show what a good person he continues to be, despite his growing public profile. He is academically outstanding. There is no doubt about that, he has been voted to the Academic All-American Team for the second consecutive season. He has an outstanding GPA of 3.66 in Family, Youth and Communications Studies which is the kind of example that Freshmen need to see. Last year was also the season that Tebow cemented his legacy, the was “The Promise” (in case you missed it You Tube ‘Tim Tebow Speech’) perhaps more impressive than the speech itself was the fact Tebow followed through on it. Then there was the scene in the National Championship, Tim charging down the sideline into a Florida defensive huddle. There wasn’t any other moment filled with more raw passion in the whole of college football. But by January 8th at the latest there will be no more Tim Tebow in the Southeastern Conference. This will leave a faceless conference, an SEC without a center piece. So who can fill this vacuum? Nobody will be able to supply the intangibles that Tebow has shown over the past 4 years; that’s just who Tim is. But someone needs to stand up as a good person, a good player and a good student.

It’s going to be easier carrying out this role if your playing on a winning team, that’s how you get national coverage, just ask Case Keenum. So immediately if you play for the University of Alabama there’s an immediate advantage. And there are two straight forward choices; Greg McElroy and Mark Ingram. If these two young men were combined into one then you have the perfect Tebow replacement, but their not and both have great merits of their own. McElroy is possibly the academic equal of Tebow, and this year statistically the equal but does he have the leadership skills? Maybe, they haven’t really been tested this year yet. Going toe to toe with Tebow in Atlanta in 10 days might answer these questions, but until then we can’t really know. Ingram is a little different to McElroy. He doesn’t have the outstanding academics and is to all intents and purposes purely a football player. This would make him a less obvious Tebow replacement, but maybe would put him ahead of McElroy for face of the SEC. It is after all a football conference. McElroy is unlikely to be in the Heisman competition next year, which will be his last year of eligibility. Ingram will very probably be in the conversation for the next 2 years, that could be 3,000 more yards and 30 more TD’s.
How about if another team starts wining? The most primed seems to be Ole Miss. Next year the team will be all Jevan Snead’s. This is either a really good thing, or a really bad thing. Snead showed earlier this year that, when he is surrounded by expectations, he struggles. He has excelled the last two years after Ole Miss has fallen out of contention, but he has at least excelled. He already has a certain amount of exposure and seems to have the same drive to succeed that Tebow possesses, does this mean he could become the face of the conference? Well, yeah if he can have a good year. Say Mississippi goes 11-1 regular season next year losing the SEC west by 1 game and goes to a BCS bowl, what’s to say that Snead won’t be the outstanding figure in the SEC.

The most ready to light up the record books like Tim Tebow has done looks like Ryan Mallett at Arkansas. He’s already profiled his physical gifts and has two potential years of eligibility left. If he was to lead Arkansas to any kind of success then he could gain the kind of cult status as Tebow has in Florida. He is also one of the higher profile players in the SEC, all it takes is for a good Arkansas season to gain Mallett a national stage. In Bobby Petrino, Mallett has a coach that can build a system to best use the young man’s skill set. He does need to grow into an out and out leader of this young Arkansas team, which would set him apart. He has the opportunity to do this in the next couple of years, if he stays. And that’s potentially the only thing that stands between Mallett being the next face of the SEC and someone else doing it; his leadership.

Whoever takes over Tebow’s crown as Prince of the Southeastern Conference they will be very different to the Florida quarterback. He is a once in a generation player, much like Herschel Walker and Peyton Manning. Much like those when those two individuals left whoever takes up the mantle left by Tim Tebow, the SEC will continue as the premier conference in America and that is a certainty.

Sunday, 15 November 2009

(Inter)National Football League

I’ve waited a couple of weeks to write. I wanted to let the dust settle, reassess the situation, see if my opinion changed. It hasn’t so I thought I’d unload. In case you missed it, and if you follow sports it’s difficult to, on October 25th Wembley stadium in London, England played host to an NFL regular season game. For the third year running. I don’t have much of a problem with NFL teams playing games in England, just regular season games. In 2008 the San Diego Chargers played the New Orleans Saints at Wembley. Before the Chargers played the Saints they had to fly across eight time zones, EIGHT! Imagine flying from California to England alone, it wrecks anybody for about a week. Then they were asking these guys to play to the highest standard of their profession. Unsurprisingly they lost. There are now four pre-season games for NFL teams, play one of those at Wembley, it’ll keep the fans happy, it will make the NFL the same amount of money and it takes less out of the players both physically and mentally.

While I don’t like the idea of playing regular season games in London I positively despise the other idea that’s come out of it. An NFL franchise in London. Yeah double take, I always do. This idea is so unsustainable in so many different ways. It would provide a scheduling nightmare for the league figuring out how to plug a five hour time difference. Can you imagine trying to figure out how to work in 8 home and 8 road games for a team who are nine hours away from the closest current NFL franchise. Another big problem is talent. Where would the London teams players magically appear from? College is the obvious answer. Do you however really believe that a 21 year-old kid will want to move to a foreign country regardless of the pay check? Some of these kids will not have been out of their State never mind the United States.

This is different to Hockey, who opened their league season with games in Scandinavia. The easy reason this worked is because over half the NHL players are from Scandinavia or Eastern Europe. The distance however means that an NHL franchise in Norway or Sweden isn’t even being talked about. The influx of big name European players into the NBA also makes playing games in Europe a little more feasible as well. David Stern has mentioned an European NBA franchise but, like normal, no one listened to David Stern.

If the British public had an NFL franchise in London what is there that’s unique about the sport to this public. It is an American sport, and that is it’s appeal to a big group of people whether they know it or not. It doesn’t have the history or tradition as it does in America, because it’s American. Would people continue to go and pay the NFL prices if it was 8 weeks a year instead of 1. There’s the scary prospect of any London franchise becoming a cold weather Jacksonville with an increasing low attendances and dwindling fan bases.

What should be the final nail in this ideas coffin is this; look at how American sports have faired in Britain so far. They have become irrelevant, almost ignored and why? Because people lost interest. This has been one of the biggest things I noticed about this talk; people saying they fell in love with football in the 80’s lost interest in the 90’s and now have found fallen back in love. What if this happens with a franchise in London? What do they do if it becomes like British hockey and basketball? It would be a disaster for England, Football and the NFL and would be on the very first plane to Los Angeles.