Saturday 28 August 2010

New Dawns

Some stories never seem to change (see the three team power trip of the AL East) several divisions in baseball have been dancing to a very different beat in 2010. As of this morning (Saturday 28th August) the six divisional leaders are: New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres. The Yankees, Twins and (historically) the Braves aren’t exactly strangers to the play-offs the Reds, Padres and Rangers haven’t been rushing to organise banner unveilings, in fact they only have a combined 2 play-off appearances this decade both by the Padres in 2005 and 2006. This year all three teams have found success in exactly the same mould; pitching, pitching and an MVP candidate.

San Diego Padres

San Diego trusted the season to a young and incredibly talented rotation from the very start and could not have imagined how successful it would turn out to be. Leading the way has been 22 year-old right handed sensation Mat Latos. Latos began the year as an incredibly talented but divisive prospect who had earned himself a reputation as a bad teammate, something that chiselled veterans like Heath Bell refused to tolerate. Latos admitted that in 2009: "I was so young, 21, and all the other guys were so much older than me, I felt like I kind of didn't fit in so I had to put up a wall almost and be by myself and be my own person and away from everybody else." Bell eventually had enough of the young Latos exploding in a dressing room rant that included him telling Latos: “You're a talented pitcher but we can make you that much better. You walk around here like you're a veteran thinking like you're somebody. You have to be humble. We have to work as a team." Whatever happened between that confrontation and the beginning of the 2010 season did make Latos a better pitcher, much better. Over the five months that have constituted the 2010 season the native Virginian has been dazzling, he is currently fourth in the NL and fifth in all of Major League Baseball with a 2.29 ERA and a league leading 0.98 WHIP. Usually it helps a team to see the back of a starter that good; when you’re playing against San Diego it is one of the most disheartening things that can happen in all of baseball. First out of the ‘pen is usually either Luke Gregerson or Mike Bell and if the opposition is still hanging around in the ninth inning that would single the arrival of the aforementioned Bell. The 6’3 220 pounder from Oceanside, California , which is about a 40 minute drive from Petco Park, has had by far the best year of his 7 year career. His previous best ERA mark was in 2007 when he posted a 2.02 mark in 81 games with 102 strikeouts while only being given 6 save opportunities, the position of closer being held by the imposing figure of the legendary Trevor Hoffman. This season Bell’s strikeouts will almost certainly be down, he’s currently at 73 and would need to appear in every remaining game and pick up a K in order to pass 2007, his WHIP is up from 0.96 in ’07 to 1.20 this year but he has seemingly learnt to be a more efficient pitcher, reducing the all important ERA from that previously mentioned and very impressive 2.02 to an astonishing 1.78 which is fourth best amongst Major League closers behind Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner and Andrew Bailey.

Leading the Padres offensive output is, as always, Adrian Gonzalez. A-Gon leads the Padres in average (.296), homers (27), RBI’s (86), OBP (.388) and slugging percentage (520), he is the best player on the team in every offensive category, which makes him more important to his team than even Albert Pujols is to the Cardinals. At the beginning of the year the buzz surrounding Gonzalez was his importance to a play-off team, nobody thought it would be the Padres. The clever money was that he would be plying his trade a long, long way from his home town in the significantly more historic and successful surroundings of Fenway Park in Boston but, as this season has progressed, it became increasingly impossible for the Friars to send Gonzo anywhere other than his regular position at First Base. Oh by the way another footnote about the predicted trade to Boston: the Red Sox are 4.5 games out of first place in the AL East with a 74-55 records, the Padres are 6 games clear in the NL West with a 76-51 record. Importantly to the 2010 Padres is not what their super slugger has been accomplishing with the stick, it has been what he has achieved with the glove behind this pitching staff that need great, not good, but great defence. Gonzalez has a .996 fielding percentage which, amongst Padres with more than 500 innings ranks third on the team, the defensive skills that the San Diego native provides is much more important than any home run he has hit this year (well, almost). For all the sabermatricians out there that Gonzalez’s season has resulted in a +4.7 WAR (wins above replacement) basically the difference between San Diego’s record and that of the Boston Red Sox.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds, like the Padres, were a team that were largely expected to fade away as the season progressed, well in case you missed it they didn’t. Unlike San Diego they don’t exactly have the one dominating pitcher but what they have had is a rotation that has remained consistent throughout. For the first two months of the season their ace was 2009 eighth overall pick Mike Leake, the pitcher who the Reds rated good enough to skip the minor leagues entirely. The first three months of the season saw the 22-year-old compile an impressive 3.30 ERA that included a 1.88 mark through the month of May. Unfortunately since then his lack of experience has begun to take its toll on him, with a 4.56 ERA in July and an unfortunate 8.83 in August before ending up on the 15 day DL with shoulder fatigue, a side effect of the 138 innings that Leake has thrown so far this season. While the former Arizona State star has slowly fatigued he had done more than enough in the early part of the season to keep the Reds in the mix. Luckily for Cincinnati the loss of Leake hasn’t been felt nearly as much as it could have been given the improvement in Bronson Arroyo who began the year about as badly as he possibly could going 1-2 in the month of April with a 6.37 ERA. Ever since April everything has been going down, in the best possible way, the four succeeding months has produced chronological ERA marks of; 3.89, 3.60, 2.81 and 2.73, that has left him with an impressive season mark of 3.82. The work of the identical twins has been supplemented by an unimpressive but consistent season from the enigma of Johnny Cueto who’s season has been somewhat overshadowed by the unfortunate events at Great American Ballpark back on August 10th. When he has decided to use his hands instead of his feet he has been as efficient as Dusty Baker could every have hoped for. The bad news for the Reds has far as Cueto goes is he alternates good and bad months, as shown by his ERA splits for the season.

Month

ERA

April

5.33

May

1.59

June

4.54

July

2.01

August

4.43

This means that, even though he may have a successful run down the stretch during which he could help secure Cincinnati’s first division title since 1995 it would be wise for Dusty to avoid pitching him at any point during October.

While the Padres are able to boast the outstanding hitting ability of Adrian Gonzalez it has been bettered in every category in 2010 by the Reds triple-crown threat Joey Votto. Both players lead their respective teams in every offensive category but, unlike his San Diego counterpart, Votto plays on a much better hitting team and also unlike Gonzalez the Reds first baseman is close to the top of the league in all categories. He is first in average, joint second in homers, second in RBI’s, first in OBP and second in slugging percentage. The categories that Votto places second in he ranks behind only Albert Pujols, the reigning NL MVP who also happens to play on the Reds biggest division rival. Despite the success of the Reds pitching staff the momentum that the slightly smaller Red machine has been riding this season has been completely driven by the size of Votto’s bat. While the presence of Albert will make any attempt at the triple crown a distant dream it would be very difficult for any honest judge to vote Votto as the 2010 NL MVP, especially if the Reds hang onto the division.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers rotation has been anchored by perhaps the two obscurest starting pitchers to have thrown a pitch in 2010. CJ Wilson was a career reliever who had a career year for the Rangers in 2009 with a very impressive 2.81 ERA in a career high 78.2 innings pitched that included 14 saves. Somewhere in the deep Texas heat Wilson reinvented himself before he threw seven shutout innings in Toronto in his first career start since 2005. When the Rangers looked to CJ to provide a solid fourth or fifth starter he gave them something more like the performance that Ron Washington hoped his ace could provided, well until July 9th Wilson became the Rangers ace. The 3.02 ERA that Wilson has posted this year doesn’t accurately reflect the incredible season that the 29 year-old has had, his six starts in May have unfortunately inflated his ERA by at least half a run. On that basis Wilson could actually be sporting maybe a 2.52 ERA or a little more realistically maybe 2.72, imagine if it did sit at 2.72 how much more attention would he be receiving nationally? The most impressive aspect about Wilson’s season has been that he achieved all of thin in 164 innings which, if you’ve been paying attention boys and girls, is 91 more than any season before. His partner in crime has been the farmhand built, University of Alabama schooled Tommy Hunter whose 6’3 280 pound frame is rivalled only by CC Sabathia for most unlikely bodied big leaguer. Hunter, however unlikely, has achieved something that not even the great Nolan Ryan achieved; starting a Major League season going 8-0, Hunter had a realistic chance to go 9-0 before blowing a 5 run lead against the LA Angels. Hunter has been the prototypical prospect, improving every year he has been in the big leagues and is the type of young man we are going to see coming through the Nolan Ryan lead Rangers; big, strong, incredibly durable and above all else a winner. His 3.66 ERA while impressive is not as dazzling as that of Wilson but his 11-2 record displays and incredible ability for keeping his team in the game. That is nearly 400 words written about the Texas Rangers pitching rotation and I haven’t even mentioned Cliff Lee, the best pitcher in the whole of the American League, maybe even all of baseball. Lee hasn’t been as impressive in Texas as he was previously in Seattle but that doesn’t change the reason the Rangers acquired the former Cy Young winner: the play-offs.

What Gonzalez and Votto have done for their respective teams is impressive but doesn’t even come close to the achievements of the Raleigh hitting machine that is Josh Hamilton. When Hamilton burst onto the scene at the 2008 All-Star home run derby everyone expected him to dominate in 2009, well better late than never. 2010 has been the year of Hamilton, he has torched every pitcher he has seen this year making landing himself in the top five in every American League category. The marks that he will put up this year will be career highs in every aspect most impressively average (.358) and one base percentage (.410). The statistics say a lot about Hamiliton’s ability but little about his character. When he was picked first in the 1999 baseball draft Josh had the world at his feet, then came the alcohol and the drugs that dropped Hamilton off the end of the baseball map. The road that he has taken since his fall into vice makes the pressure of a play-off seen like a work in the park for Hamilton, something that should make it easier for him to lead the Rangers to their first play-off birth since 1999.

All three of these teams were not expected to be in this position back in April but, with on the strength of some brilliant pitching and with one outstanding player all three should make deep and meaningful runs into October, as unexpected as they would be.

Information used in this piece taken from an excellent article written by Jorge Arangure jr over at ESPN, read it http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5460639

Friday 13 August 2010

Can Conrad Carry Braves?


When Chipper Jones fell to the ground in foul territory at Houston’s Minute Maid Park on Tuesday night it would have been easy for the Braves to lose momentum and crumple in the same way the franchise legend had, to their credit nobody allowed that to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday but Chipper’s injury is going to affect far more than just the Astros series. The Chipper that got hurt was not the .251 hitter that had plagued the Braves line-up for the first four months of the season, whether it was the intensifying pennant chase, the benefit of being healthy for a couple of consecutive weeks (irony) or just finally seeing the ball well, something had happened to Chipper in the month of August, in the nine games Jones had played this month he was hitting .400 with 3 homers. Whilst the improved average was a major improvement for Chipper the power surge was the most significant statistic of the month, not just for Jones but the Braves, the most homers he had hit in a single month so far in 2010 prior to August was 2. To top that in just nine was a significant boost for the 38-year-old third baseman, finding the power swing that could have propelled the team into the play-offs, unfortunately that won’t happen now. Do the Braves have other options, or at least viable one’s to fill in for Chipper at third.

The best option for the Braves is Omar Infante the do it all utility man with the robust .330 average who has an All-Star selection to his name, problem with Infante is he will be playing second base until next week at the earliest covering for another All-Star Martin Prado. So now the team is facing an absolutely huge series against the Dodgers (who spent Thursday night trying to infuriate Braves fan everywhere) without a top quality third baseman. Brooks Conrad will likely be the individual filling the void left by Chipper but, despite his regular late game heroics, he will be a bigger black hole than even when Jones was at his worst. The most at-bats Conrad has had in a month so far this year is 33, Chipper’s monthly low before August was 61, a figure that cannot be overlooked. Brooks is a bench player, one who has carved his little piece of Braves folklore yes, but a bench player all the same. He will now be vaulted into the position of replacing the second best player in franchise history in a series that, even though it is in mid-August, could go a long way to deciding who had the inside track in the race for the NL East. It has been the role players like Conrad that have carried this team to its 66 wins so far, in Chippers absence they will need the carry them to a significant number more. This weekend will go a long way to deciding how magic the 2010 Braves truly are.

Monday 9 August 2010

Minor Gets Major Opportunity


Tonight Mike Minor becomes the latest in a long line of top Braves pitching prospects being promoted from Triple-A to the big time. Minor may go on to have a long and successful career but the longest journeys always begin with the smallest step. The latest prospects being promoted have all scuffled and stumbled and tried their hardest to fall at that first step, some straightened up and are now running others fell at a later step, the Braves debut still appears somewhat of a poisoned chalice. This marks the fourth year that a highly touted Braves pitching prospect has made the jump from AAA to the big leagues with seriously mixed results.

It all began when the Braves has a spare key to the franchise cut for a young lefty drafted in the second round of the 2003 draft who made his Major League debut in July of 2007. His name was Jo-Jo Reyes. Long before the tag of farmhand was attached to Reyes and well before he was an afterthought in a mid-season trade both then-GM and manager Bobby Cox believed Reyes could be the next big thing in Atlanta. After his promotion to Triple-A Richmond (remember those days) he threw just 23 innings but posted a 1.57 ERA with 27 strikeouts, this convinced the organisation that the 22-year-old was ready to pitch in Atlanta, he was called up on July 7th to start in place of the injured John Smoltz against the San Diego Padres and David Wells. The first inning went well enough Jo-Jo it was the second that the trouble started as Reyes gave up a solo homer to Khalil Greene, he would last barely an inning more giving up five earned runs in five hits and three walks while recording only one strikeout.

Next up for the Braves production line was the debut of James Parr, a fourth round pick in the 2004 draft. Despite being such a high pick Parr, like Reyes before him, worked the farm for the Braves progressing to AAA without ever dominating the same way the Jo-Jo had before him. In the Minor Leagues in 2008, prior to his September call-up, Parr remained solid without ever being outstanding, he made 28 appearances and 26 starts compiling 150.2 innings and a solid 3.52 ERA. He made his debut in Atlanta on September 4th 2008 against the Washington Nationals as the Braves neared the end of another disappointing season. Parr burst onto the scene in exactly the way they had hoped Reyes to. In six innings Parr allowed only two hits and no runs earning his first Major League win in the Braves 2-0 victory over the Nationals.

2009 was the year that really began to shape the future of the Braves, both as a franchise and as pitching rotation. At the beginning of the season Tommy Hanson had climbed to the top of the Braves rankings but began the season at AAA Gwinnett along with Kris Medlen. It was a surprise to many that Medlen was the first to make his major league debut in what was supposed to be a spot start prior to Tom Glavine’s return to the Atlanta rotation. Despite the surprise an argument could have been made that Medlen deserved the start more than his more heralded friend having posted a 1.19 ERA at Gwinnett compared to Hanson’s 1.49. Medlen stepped onto the mound in Atlanta for the first time on May 21st 2009 against the Colorado Rockies, a game Kris would later look back on as one of the most embarrassing moments of his baseball life. He lasted a Reyes-like three innings giving up 5 earned runs on 3 hits while walking five batters, a stat that ended up killing a debutant Medlen.

Hanson would make his debut barely two weeks after Medlen after Braves GM Frank Wren made himself the most unpopular man in Atlanta by cutting Tom Glavine prior to his scheduled comeback start. Unfortunately this made Hanson’s debut considerably less celebrated than it should have been as the top right-handed pitching prospect in the game. Whether or not this fact affected Tommy he became the second debuting pitcher to fall flat his first time in the Majors. Hanson pitched six innings striking out five which would have looked a lot more impressive if he hadn’t given up six earned runs that included three home runs.

Unlike his predecessors Minor does have the luxury of making his debut away from Atlanta in the relative obscurity of Minute Maid Park in Houston. To succeed Minor has to do exactly what has worked for him in his rise through the minor leagues, something that Reyes, Medlen and Hanson all got away from. As unfortunate as Medlen’s injury was, and as bad as it is for the Braves, it could turn out to be a blessing in disguise if Minor is able to repay the faith the organisation showed in him when they selected him with the seventh overall pick last year. Even half a Strasburg would be a success.

Friday 6 August 2010

47 and 48: More Than Numbers



Tonight is going to be one of those magical evenings that Turner Field has been increasingly providing thanks to a rise in players retiring and wins. The lucky few that attended the honorary luncheon and the 40,000+ friends in attendance at Turner Field tonight will all have been part of the most momentous evening in the Braves recent history. When the number 47 is unveiled in the Braves Hall of Fame, which itself is slowly catching that of the Yankees, it will signal the end of two of the greatest eras in sports history: the 14 consecutive divisions and Tom Glavine’s career. A career that started in 1987, two years before I was born, officially ends just before first pitch is thrown against the San Francisco Giants tonight with Glavine being the seventh number to be retired by the Atlanta Braves. He joins last year’s inductee and former teammate Greg Maddux (31) as well as Hank Aaron (44), Eddie Mathews (41), Warren Spahn (21), Dale Murphy (3), and Phil Niekro (35).

In a twist of poetic irony it will be the Braves current number 48 Tommy Hanson starting tonight in what could be seen as one of the most poignant torch passing’s of recent years. While Jason Heyward catching the season’s first pitch, thrown by Hank Aaron, was a piece of stage management rarely seen in the city outside of the Fox theatre tonight was hardly designed as Tommy Hanson’s coming out party, it may just end up that way. 47 being retired the same night that 48 is on the mound just happens to be one of those beautiful consequences that occasionally happens in sports but there is a lot about Glavine’s career that Braves fans should remember every time they see Tommy Hanson. In his rookie year Hanson posted a 2.89 ERA which Glavine bettered only twice in his career and it took him 5 years to put up a 2.55 ERA in 1992 and that, in case you were wondering, is before the boom in performance enhancers. Glavine’s rookie season consisted of only 50 innings, not exactly a large amount of data, so his first full season in 1988 is much better to compare to the work that Tommy Hanson has done in his young career so far. In 34 starts Glavine went 7-17 (yes that is the right way round Tom lost 17 games) while putting up a 4.56 ERA in 195 innings. Hanson made 22 starts in his rookie season with the aforementioned 2.89 ERA and an 11-4 record while completing 127 innings. His second season hasn’t exactly matched his achievements of 2009 and that hasn’t gone unnoticed, Tommy has put up a 3.83 ERA and a mediocre 8-8 record in almost exactly the same number of innings but one more start, in comparison Glavine’s second full season saw a 3.68 ERA a 14-8 record in 29 starts, or 186 innings.

What all those numbers prove is that even the Braves greatest product, Tom Glavine, needed an amount of time to adjust the league he would go on to dominate. Even though Hanson has seemed to struggle this season he is still posting numbers significantly better than a young 47 produced or would produce until his fifth year in the league. So when I or any other Braves fan complains about Tommy Hanson’s 2010 season and wonder what’s wrong we need to remember that he has been better than one of the 7 best players in Braves history. Well, for two of twenty-one years at least.