Some stories never seem to change (see the three team power trip of the AL East) several divisions in baseball have been dancing to a very different beat in 2010. As of this morning (Saturday 28th August) the six divisional leaders are: New York Yankees, Minnesota Twins, Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds and the San Diego Padres. The Yankees, Twins and (historically) the Braves aren’t exactly strangers to the play-offs the Reds, Padres and Rangers haven’t been rushing to organise banner unveilings, in fact they only have a combined 2 play-off appearances this decade both by the Padres in 2005 and 2006. This year all three teams have found success in exactly the same mould; pitching, pitching and an MVP candidate.
San Diego Padres
San Diego trusted the season to a young and incredibly talented rotation from the very start and could not have imagined how successful it would turn out to be. Leading the way has been 22 year-old right handed sensation Mat Latos. Latos began the year as an incredibly talented but divisive prospect who had earned himself a reputation as a bad teammate, something that chiselled veterans like Heath Bell refused to tolerate. Latos admitted that in 2009: "I was so young, 21, and all the other guys were so much older than me, I felt like I kind of didn't fit in so I had to put up a wall almost and be by myself and be my own person and away from everybody else." Bell eventually had enough of the young Latos exploding in a dressing room rant that included him telling Latos: “You're a talented pitcher but we can make you that much better. You walk around here like you're a veteran thinking like you're somebody. You have to be humble. We have to work as a team." Whatever happened between that confrontation and the beginning of the 2010 season did make Latos a better pitcher, much better. Over the five months that have constituted the 2010 season the native Virginian has been dazzling, he is currently fourth in the NL and fifth in all of Major League Baseball with a 2.29 ERA and a league leading 0.98 WHIP. Usually it helps a team to see the back of a starter that good; when you’re playing against San Diego it is one of the most disheartening things that can happen in all of baseball. First out of the ‘pen is usually either Luke Gregerson or Mike Bell and if the opposition is still hanging around in the ninth inning that would single the arrival of the aforementioned Bell. The 6’3 220 pounder from Oceanside, California , which is about a 40 minute drive from Petco Park, has had by far the best year of his 7 year career. His previous best ERA mark was in 2007 when he posted a 2.02 mark in 81 games with 102 strikeouts while only being given 6 save opportunities, the position of closer being held by the imposing figure of the legendary Trevor Hoffman. This season Bell’s strikeouts will almost certainly be down, he’s currently at 73 and would need to appear in every remaining game and pick up a K in order to pass 2007, his WHIP is up from 0.96 in ’07 to 1.20 this year but he has seemingly learnt to be a more efficient pitcher, reducing the all important ERA from that previously mentioned and very impressive 2.02 to an astonishing 1.78 which is fourth best amongst Major League closers behind Mariano Rivera, Billy Wagner and Andrew Bailey.
Leading the Padres offensive output is, as always, Adrian Gonzalez. A-Gon leads the Padres in average (.296), homers (27), RBI’s (86), OBP (.388) and slugging percentage (520), he is the best player on the team in every offensive category, which makes him more important to his team than even Albert Pujols is to the Cardinals. At the beginning of the year the buzz surrounding Gonzalez was his importance to a play-off team, nobody thought it would be the Padres. The clever money was that he would be plying his trade a long, long way from his home town in the significantly more historic and successful surroundings of Fenway Park in Boston but, as this season has progressed, it became increasingly impossible for the Friars to send Gonzo anywhere other than his regular position at First Base. Oh by the way another footnote about the predicted trade to Boston: the Red Sox are 4.5 games out of first place in the AL East with a 74-55 records, the Padres are 6 games clear in the NL West with a 76-51 record. Importantly to the 2010 Padres is not what their super slugger has been accomplishing with the stick, it has been what he has achieved with the glove behind this pitching staff that need great, not good, but great defence. Gonzalez has a .996 fielding percentage which, amongst Padres with more than 500 innings ranks third on the team, the defensive skills that the San Diego native provides is much more important than any home run he has hit this year (well, almost). For all the sabermatricians out there that Gonzalez’s season has resulted in a +4.7 WAR (wins above replacement) basically the difference between San Diego’s record and that of the Boston Red Sox.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds, like the Padres, were a team that were largely expected to fade away as the season progressed, well in case you missed it they didn’t. Unlike San Diego they don’t exactly have the one dominating pitcher but what they have had is a rotation that has remained consistent throughout. For the first two months of the season their ace was 2009 eighth overall pick Mike Leake, the pitcher who the Reds rated good enough to skip the minor leagues entirely. The first three months of the season saw the 22-year-old compile an impressive 3.30 ERA that included a 1.88 mark through the month of May. Unfortunately since then his lack of experience has begun to take its toll on him, with a 4.56 ERA in July and an unfortunate 8.83 in August before ending up on the 15 day DL with shoulder fatigue, a side effect of the 138 innings that Leake has thrown so far this season. While the former Arizona State star has slowly fatigued he had done more than enough in the early part of the season to keep the Reds in the mix. Luckily for Cincinnati the loss of Leake hasn’t been felt nearly as much as it could have been given the improvement in Bronson Arroyo who began the year about as badly as he possibly could going 1-2 in the month of April with a 6.37 ERA. Ever since April everything has been going down, in the best possible way, the four succeeding months has produced chronological ERA marks of; 3.89, 3.60, 2.81 and 2.73, that has left him with an impressive season mark of 3.82. The work of the identical twins has been supplemented by an unimpressive but consistent season from the enigma of Johnny Cueto who’s season has been somewhat overshadowed by the unfortunate events at Great American Ballpark back on August 10th. When he has decided to use his hands instead of his feet he has been as efficient as Dusty Baker could every have hoped for. The bad news for the Reds has far as Cueto goes is he alternates good and bad months, as shown by his ERA splits for the season.
| Month | ERA |
| April | 5.33 |
| May | 1.59 |
| June | 4.54 |
| July | 2.01 |
| August | 4.43 |
This means that, even though he may have a successful run down the stretch during which he could help secure Cincinnati’s first division title since 1995 it would be wise for Dusty to avoid pitching him at any point during October.
While the Padres are able to boast the outstanding hitting ability of Adrian Gonzalez it has been bettered in every category in 2010 by the Reds triple-crown threat Joey Votto. Both players lead their respective teams in every offensive category but, unlike his San Diego counterpart, Votto plays on a much better hitting team and also unlike Gonzalez the Reds first baseman is close to the top of the league in all categories. He is first in average, joint second in homers, second in RBI’s, first in OBP and second in slugging percentage. The categories that Votto places second in he ranks behind only Albert Pujols, the reigning NL MVP who also happens to play on the Reds biggest division rival. Despite the success of the Reds pitching staff the momentum that the slightly smaller Red machine has been riding this season has been completely driven by the size of Votto’s bat. While the presence of Albert will make any attempt at the triple crown a distant dream it would be very difficult for any honest judge to vote Votto as the 2010 NL MVP, especially if the Reds hang onto the division.
Texas Rangers
The Rangers rotation has been anchored by perhaps the two obscurest starting pitchers to have thrown a pitch in 2010. CJ Wilson was a career reliever who had a career year for the Rangers in 2009 with a very impressive 2.81 ERA in a career high 78.2 innings pitched that included 14 saves. Somewhere in the deep Texas heat Wilson reinvented himself before he threw seven shutout innings in Toronto in his first career start since 2005. When the Rangers looked to CJ to provide a solid fourth or fifth starter he gave them something more like the performance that Ron Washington hoped his ace could provided, well until July 9th Wilson became the Rangers ace. The 3.02 ERA that Wilson has posted this year doesn’t accurately reflect the incredible season that the 29 year-old has had, his six starts in May have unfortunately inflated his ERA by at least half a run. On that basis Wilson could actually be sporting maybe a 2.52 ERA or a little more realistically maybe 2.72, imagine if it did sit at 2.72 how much more attention would he be receiving nationally? The most impressive aspect about Wilson’s season has been that he achieved all of thin in 164 innings which, if you’ve been paying attention boys and girls, is 91 more than any season before. His partner in crime has been the farmhand built, University of Alabama schooled Tommy Hunter whose 6’3 280 pound frame is rivalled only by CC Sabathia for most unlikely bodied big leaguer. Hunter, however unlikely, has achieved something that not even the great Nolan Ryan achieved; starting a Major League season going 8-0, Hunter had a realistic chance to go 9-0 before blowing a 5 run lead against the LA Angels. Hunter has been the prototypical prospect, improving every year he has been in the big leagues and is the type of young man we are going to see coming through the Nolan Ryan lead Rangers; big, strong, incredibly durable and above all else a winner. His 3.66 ERA while impressive is not as dazzling as that of Wilson but his 11-2 record displays and incredible ability for keeping his team in the game. That is nearly 400 words written about the Texas Rangers pitching rotation and I haven’t even mentioned Cliff Lee, the best pitcher in the whole of the American League, maybe even all of baseball. Lee hasn’t been as impressive in Texas as he was previously in Seattle but that doesn’t change the reason the Rangers acquired the former Cy Young winner: the play-offs.
What Gonzalez and Votto have done for their respective teams is impressive but doesn’t even come close to the achievements of the Raleigh hitting machine that is Josh Hamilton. When Hamilton burst onto the scene at the 2008 All-Star home run derby everyone expected him to dominate in 2009, well better late than never. 2010 has been the year of Hamilton, he has torched every pitcher he has seen this year making landing himself in the top five in every American League category. The marks that he will put up this year will be career highs in every aspect most impressively average (.358) and one base percentage (.410). The statistics say a lot about Hamiliton’s ability but little about his character. When he was picked first in the 1999 baseball draft Josh had the world at his feet, then came the alcohol and the drugs that dropped Hamilton off the end of the baseball map. The road that he has taken since his fall into vice makes the pressure of a play-off seen like a work in the park for Hamilton, something that should make it easier for him to lead the Rangers to their first play-off birth since 1999.
All three of these teams were not expected to be in this position back in April but, with on the strength of some brilliant pitching and with one outstanding player all three should make deep and meaningful runs into October, as unexpected as they would be.
Information used in this piece taken from an excellent article written by Jorge Arangure jr over at ESPN, read it http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5460639
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