While the Braves do not have a first round pick they were able to pick up the 35th pick of the draft in the first supplemental round thanks to the Baltimore Orioles picking up Mike Gonzalez in free agency. The Braves history in the draft is of picking high school kids and taking a lot of pitchers which has worked incredibly well, just look at the success of some high school guys that came to the Braves, guys like Chipper Jones, Adam Wainwright, Jason Marquis and, most recently Jason Heyward. Despite the success of the Braves regular strategy I don’t think they will go down that route tonight. For starters the organisation has already said they are happy with the stable of pitchers already inside the system and there is a noticeable lack of young bats in the minor league teams, and even guys like Jordan Schafer and Freddie Freeman aren’t developing the way the front office would like. So it’s a consensus opinion that the Braves will take a hitter with the 35th pick and very likely with the 53rd pick as well. I also think the Braves will be way more interested in taking an older college player having seen the collapse of someone like Jeff Francouer from High School and the success of Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen, both of whom were taken out of Community College out in California. History also points to the Braves taking outstanding High School players from Georgia, of which there are none currently on the radar, so the extra video and maturity of College players will appeal to Frank Wren a lot more than a long shot High School player. So with all that I wanted to take a look at who the Braves could realistically take tonight, I am not in any way going to try and say the Braves could end up with Bryce Harper or Zach Cox but I came up with four names that should be right at the top of the Atlanta draft board.
The most interesting name for the Braves is just a Jason Heyward home run distance from Turner Field and that young man is Georgia Tech shortstop Derek Dietrich who has dazzled with the bat in his junior season with the Yellow Jackets. Out of High School Dietrich was selected in the third round by the Houston Astros but his stock is significantly higher than back in 2007 after playing three years in one of the best Conferences in NCAA baseball. Dietrich hit .332 with 14 home runs in his freshman season before he suffered a relative sophomore slump last year in his sophomore year dropping 21 points from his average and only hitting 10 home runs. After spending the summer playing in the wood bat Cape Cod League the Ohio native ripped through ACC pitching hitting .352 and 16 homers in his best year since High School. Dietrich is a highly talented hitter but there are some reservations about his ability with the wooden bat, especially in regard to the power numbers, but he should overcome this with time in the minors thanks to his good hitting mechanics. Dietrich is also extremely disciplined at the plate working 27 walks to his 37 strikeouts and, with the Braves concentrating so heavily on on-base-percentage this has got to be a hugely appealing part of his game. As far as defensive positioning goes Dietrich does not project as a Major League shortstop but could easily switch to a role as an offensive second baseman but, with Martin Prado’s excellence and Chipper Jones’ increasing age, would seem more likely to move to third base. If Dietrich is seen as Chipper’s long term replacement the Braves would want him early to ensure the Astros don’t grab the young man they coveted so much from St Ignatius High. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus also projects Dietrich going to the Braves with the 35th pick as the team’s future third baseman.
There have also been rumblings that in their search for power at the plate the Braves could be interested in taking Clemson Tigers outfielder Kyle Parker. While Parker does not have the natural hitting ability that Dietrich possesses but is quite possibly the strongest player in the draft not names Bryce Harper. In his three season with the Tigers Parker has hit well over 40 home runs in what has essentially been his second sport, more on the later. In his freshman year the left fielder hit .308 in what was a pretty solid first season at the college level but completely disappeared in his sophomore season only managing a .255 average with less works in more at-bats. This year however Parker has bounced back in a similar way to Derek Dietrich, in the same conference Parker has compiled a .358 average which is second on the Clemson team and has hit 19 home runs. Being from Jacksonville makes Parker the local player that usually fits well with the Braves organisation and, with the right development, could prove the power balance in left field to Jason Heyward in right. The huge downside with Parker is his signability. After starring for the Tigers football team last year has not helped any teams chance of signing young Kyle because there is no certainty about which sport Parker is truly committed to. To warrant the 35th pick in the draft Parker would have to prove his dedication to baseball, which no one has thoroughly explored yet. Parker could possibly spend three more years playing college football and at least have another year evaluating his pro prospects in both sports. Draft experts have Parker going anywhere from somewhere in the 20’s to the 43rd pick, if the left fielder is gone by the time the Braves pick it makes a difficult decision much easier, if not Parker could be too good a fit to pass on.
While both the first two players I looked at have plied their trade in the ACC the next two are from the Southeastern Conference, widely considered the closest thing to minor league baseball that college players will ever experience. One of the best of the last three years has been the Louisiana State catcher Micah Gibbs who has played on 3 SEC tournament winning teams, one outright Conference Champion and the 2009 National Championship team. Gibbs has become one of the most talented and heralded defensive players in college baseball, winning gold gloves and all-Defensive team honors from various organisations last year and has been compared to Jason Varitek for his defensive abilities. After hitting .322 in his Freshman season and .294 last year Gibbs had a breakout offensive year this year leading LSU in average (.388), on-base-percentage (.458) and ranked second in slugging percentage (.592). Gibbs’ general athletic ability means that he could easily move into a corner outfield position or even to third if that is what the Braves wanted. With Brian McCann’s ongoing eye problems however the Braves could be very tempted by his ability behind the plate if the worst happens with Mac. Gibbs doesn’t have the same power as Dietrich or Parker but has been a reliable RBI guy for a very successful LSU which projects him as 15 homer and 90+ RBI future if Atlanta came find a place for him. His track record of winning with Louisiana State teams cannot be overlooked, especially for an organisation like the Braves.
The second SEC player worth a look by the Braves is Alabama Crimson Tide Junior shortstop Josh Rutledge, who has not been talked about much despite comparing relatively well to SEC darling Zack Cox. Rutledge is a prototypical Braves selection having been born in Cullman, Alabama which, if you listen to the marketing department inside Turner Field is right in the middle of Braves Country. When he has been discussed his defence has been the major talking at Rutledge is a rare case of someone who projects as a Major League shortstop and would not need moving but, again, is athletic and talented enough to move if need be. The Alabama shortstop would not be the kind of power hitter that Parker could be but has been a good average hitter his entire career. At High School Rutledge hit .454 as a senior before enrolling at Alabama. His freshman season in Tuscaloosa, Rutledge lead the team in average with a .369 average before becoming an all-SEC selection in his sophomore year even despite seeing his average drop to.305. He has played in the Cape Cod summer league for two consecutive seasons compiling a .250 average in 35 games with the wood bat. While that average is in no way eye popping it is a real achievement given he usually hits with the college aluminium bat. To reach the .250 mark demonstrates plenty of room to grow in a team’s minor league system and projects really well as a potential Major League lead off man when coupled with his above average speed. Given the Braves early season issues at the lead-off spot Rutledge’s potential has to be incredibly tempting to explore.
While there is in-state talent at shortstop with Zach Alvord and pitching with Cameron Bedrosian neither has proven enough to warrant such a high draft pick, but could be good options for later rounds. As for the 35th pick all four would be good picks for the Braves and project to having bright futures, for the 35th I think you have to choose either Dietrich or Parker simply because they would be better fits at an earlier stage, both Rutledge and Gibbs would seem to be reaches in the first supplemental round. Both should be available at 53 and maybe later and, should Frank Wren and his team have the opportunity they have to grab whatever combination they could.
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